Viral influx and its consequences: "Viral influx and its consequences

One reason why current anti-virus techniques can be expected to fail within the next few years is the rapid, accelerating influx of new computer viruses. The number of different known DOS viruses over the last several years can be fit remarkably well by an exponential curve. gif Currently, it is approximately 2000, with two or three new ones appearing each day -- a rate which already taxes to the limit the ability of anti-virus vendors to develop detectors and cures for them. Were this trend to hold up (Fig. 1), there would be approximately 10 million different DOS viruses by January, 2000 -- about 100,000 new ones per day! Of course, curve extrapolation of a phenomenon that depends largely on human sociology and psychology should be regarded very skeptically, but it is not impossible that virus writers could be so prolific. To do so, they would have to automate both the writing and the distribution of viruses. Already, the beginnings of a trend towards automated virus-writing is evinced by the Virus Creation Laboratory, a menu-driven virus toolkit circulating among virus writers' bulletin boards. Even if the rate at which new viruses appear were to suddenly plateau at a level not much higher than what it is today, the number of different DOS viruses could easily reach the tens of thousands by"